Martin Armstrong’s Investment Insights for Amateur Investors
As an amateur investor, I’ve spent over 20 years searching for the most reliable sources of financial insight. Through trial and error, I’ve narrowed my list of experts and resources to a select few. Time and again, I find myself returning to Martin Armstrong. Having followed his work for over a decade, I’m sharing my insights on his analyses, along with my own experiences applying his methods to trading.
Disclaimer: I have no financial ties to Martin Armstrong—I receive NO compensation, direct or indirect, for sharing my opinions. However, I do earn a commission from Amazon on qualifying purchases made through the links on this page.
Disclaimer: I have no financial ties to Martin Armstrong—I receive NO compensation, direct or indirect, for sharing my opinions. However, I do earn a commission from Amazon on qualifying purchases made through the links on this page.
Martin Armstrong’s Investment Philosophy
Unlike many investment gurus I followed early on, Martin Armstrong does not advocate a single asset class or strategy, such as goldbug investing or strict contrarianism. Instead, his forecasts rely on a complex system of cyclical patterns rooted in the mathematical constant π (pi), combined with support and resistance levels and his proprietary “bearish/bullish reversals.” His proprietary computer program, Socrates, analyzes historical market data to identify repeating trends.
He explains his core investment philosophy:
The basic approach I have always used in analysis is to look for repetitive patterns. I discovered long ago that the patterns that repeat in a given market are by no means limited to that market. Whenever we look at a chart of the historical price movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Index or pork bellies, the common denominator remains; we are not looking at an instrument at all, but at a record of human interaction with that particular instrument. Therefore, whatever we find in one market, with its abrupt booms and busts, will also exist in all other markets.
From Introduction in “The Cycle of War & the Coronavirus” (published December 2020).
Easy Accessibility
Martin Armstrong’s website provides a free, public-access blog, making it an excellent starting point for investors interested in his insights. Before considering his paid services, I strongly recommend exploring the free content. His subscription plans start at $15/month, granting access to his private blog and Socrates market analysis on a monthly basis for most investments. Higher-tier memberships offer more frequent updates, including weekly and daily analysis.
Challenges in Interpretation
Armstrong’s market calls can be difficult to interpret—he rarely makes definitive statements about tops or bottoms in the market. Perhaps no one truly can. Instead, his forecasts use cautious, conditional language, such as: “A break of the XXX level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible.” This level of ambiguity can be frustrating for beginner investors, but it may also reflect the inherent uncertainty of trading. Additionally, he does not provide specific stock recommendations, leaving investors to apply his broader market analysis on their own.
Unmatched Market Insights – My Results
Despite his reluctance to pinpoint exact tops or bottoms, Martin Armstrong’s market commentary is essential reading. What sets him apart is his ability to determine whether sharp market movements are temporary fluctuations or the beginning of a larger trend. By following his insights, you develop a trader’s mindset—key lessons like:
– To truly profit, the majority must be wrong (e.g., sell when everyone is buying, buy when everyone is selling).
– You can’t be emotionally attached to a single trade.
Simply understanding whether a market shift is fleeting or part of a sustained trend can significantly improve timing when entering the market.
A prime example of this was during the 2016 Brexit campaign. While mainstream predictions warned of economic disaster for the London financial industry, Armstrong took the opposite stance, arguing that Brexit would ultimately benefit the U.K. economy. When the unexpected Brexit vote passed in June 2016, U.K. financial stocks initially crashed. However, based on Armstrong’s free blog analysis, I bought Barclays stock—and six months later, as fears subsided and the market recovered, I locked in a 50% return. Just as Armstrong predicted, the panic was overblown.
In his April 2016 blog post titled “Chicago Baseball,” Martin Armstrong discussed how cycles can be applied to sports, stating: “They [Chicago Cubs] remain in a trending-higher consolidation pattern that will ultimately surprise everyone and score a miracle victory.” On November 2, 2016, the Cubs won the World Series. I can personally confirm that Armstrong made this prediction before the event—after reading his public blog post, I even considered placing a bet on the Cubs. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the available funds at the time…
His Global Market Watch (GMW) index, available through his paid site, uses pattern recognition to flag market movements. However, it’s intended as an alert system, not a trading tool. In my experience, GMW’s commentary often shifts significantly in response to market fluctuations, making it unreliable for short-term trades.
Recently, I’ve refined my trading strategy by combining multiple sources of Armstrong’s insights:
– GMW alerts
– Armstrong’s own market forecasts (from both his free and paid blog)
– His site’s sector-specific market indicators (e.g., Gold for mining stocks, Energy for oil companies)
While my timing hasn’t always been perfect, I’ve found that Armstrong’s long-term predictions—along with GMW’s broader signals—have been remarkably accurate so far (though my sample size is small).
– To truly profit, the majority must be wrong (e.g., sell when everyone is buying, buy when everyone is selling).
– You can’t be emotionally attached to a single trade.
Simply understanding whether a market shift is fleeting or part of a sustained trend can significantly improve timing when entering the market.
A prime example of this was during the 2016 Brexit campaign. While mainstream predictions warned of economic disaster for the London financial industry, Armstrong took the opposite stance, arguing that Brexit would ultimately benefit the U.K. economy. When the unexpected Brexit vote passed in June 2016, U.K. financial stocks initially crashed. However, based on Armstrong’s free blog analysis, I bought Barclays stock—and six months later, as fears subsided and the market recovered, I locked in a 50% return. Just as Armstrong predicted, the panic was overblown.
In his April 2016 blog post titled “Chicago Baseball,” Martin Armstrong discussed how cycles can be applied to sports, stating: “They [Chicago Cubs] remain in a trending-higher consolidation pattern that will ultimately surprise everyone and score a miracle victory.” On November 2, 2016, the Cubs won the World Series. I can personally confirm that Armstrong made this prediction before the event—after reading his public blog post, I even considered placing a bet on the Cubs. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the available funds at the time…
His Global Market Watch (GMW) index, available through his paid site, uses pattern recognition to flag market movements. However, it’s intended as an alert system, not a trading tool. In my experience, GMW’s commentary often shifts significantly in response to market fluctuations, making it unreliable for short-term trades.
Recently, I’ve refined my trading strategy by combining multiple sources of Armstrong’s insights:
– GMW alerts
– Armstrong’s own market forecasts (from both his free and paid blog)
– His site’s sector-specific market indicators (e.g., Gold for mining stocks, Energy for oil companies)
While my timing hasn’t always been perfect, I’ve found that Armstrong’s long-term predictions—along with GMW’s broader signals—have been remarkably accurate so far (though my sample size is small).
2025 Update: My Evolving Approach to Trading
While my investing journey began with Martin Armstrong’s economic cycle theories, I’ve since expanded my focus to day trading. Recently, I’ve been learning from Ripster and the TENET Trading Group, which prioritizes education first, profit second.
Armstrong’s insights remain invaluable, but I’ve found that TENET’s strategies complement a more active trading approach. I’ll continue sharing what I learn along the way!
Armstrong’s insights remain invaluable, but I’ve found that TENET’s strategies complement a more active trading approach. I’ll continue sharing what I learn along the way!
Learn Economics from a Real-world Trader
Martin Armstrong is not only a trader but also a passionate educator. Below are some of his key publications available on Amazon, along with my reviews.
Manipulating the World Economy (5th edition)
Hardcover – June 24, 2021
I consider this book Real-World Economics 101—a must-read for anyone looking to understand why classical economic theories have failed and where today’s fiscal policies are ultimately heading. Now in its 5th edition, this book remains Martin Armstrong’s definitive work on how economics truly functions, seen through the lens of a legendary trader.
The Plot to Seize Russia
Hardcover – June 2, 2023
In this book, Martin Armstrong draws on his personal experience and newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration to uncover a plot to rig Russia’s 2000 presidential election. These never-before-seen documents reveal multiple attempts to push pro-Western policies through the Russian oligarchy led by Boris Berezovsky. Armstrong presents a compelling case backed by historical evidence and firsthand insights.
Mark Antony & Cleopatra
Hardcover – August 24, 2023
With his deep expertise in ancient coins and economics, Martin Armstrong presents a unique perspective on the legendary story of Mark Antony and Cleopatra. His analysis goes beyond the traditional historical narrative, highlighting striking parallels between the events of the past and modern geopolitical dynamics—a recurring theme in his historical works.
The Cycle of War and the Coronavirus
Hardcover – December 10, 2020
In The Cycle of War and the Coronavirus, Martin Armstrong examines the coronavirus pandemic and government responses through the lens of history, arguing that economic crises, civil unrest, and even pandemics follow predictable cycles. He explores how past patterns can shed light on the present, revealing that the global economic collapse was not an unforeseeable event but part of a larger historical trend.
Armstrong contends that the pandemic was not purely a natural occurrence but an orchestrated event used to reshape global power structures. Drawing on historical parallels, he identifies the key players behind the crisis and warns of the turbulent future ahead, offering one of the most comprehensive analyses of the war cycle and its implications for the modern world.
Armstrong contends that the pandemic was not purely a natural occurrence but an orchestrated event used to reshape global power structures. Drawing on historical parallels, he identifies the key players behind the crisis and warns of the turbulent future ahead, offering one of the most comprehensive analyses of the war cycle and its implications for the modern world.
China on the Rise
Pamphlet – January 1, 2018
In China on the Rise, Martin Armstrong examines China’s growing global influence, forecasting that by 2032, it will surpass the United States as the world’s leading economic powerhouse. This shift, he argues, has been accelerated by government mismanagement and failed economic policies rooted in socialist principles.
The book provides a detailed analysis of China’s economic trajectory, with a particular focus on the Chinese yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index, explaining how and when China is set to dominate global finance. The events that followed its publication—including controversies involving the NBA, Hollywood, and the WHO—only further underscore the increasing power China wields on the world stage.
The book provides a detailed analysis of China’s economic trajectory, with a particular focus on the Chinese yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index, explaining how and when China is set to dominate global finance. The events that followed its publication—including controversies involving the NBA, Hollywood, and the WHO—only further underscore the increasing power China wields on the world stage.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional financial advisor. I am an amateur investor sharing insights and information that I have personally found useful. Please conduct your own research and make investment decisions responsibly.
Here are some reviews:
Review: Martin Armstrong, “China on the Rise”
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNdLqdsBQPbIIDT-XOxnCXQ
and
Socrates Subscriber Testimonials
https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/p/socrates-subscriber.html
Martin Armstrong’s Socrates is difficult to use and takes years to learn. Here is a resource that helps you reduce that effort and cost:
The Lucky Armstrong Socrates Blog
luckysocrates.blogspot.com
JapanDude, who are the few select ones, besides Armstrong, that you also follow?
I get a lot of my news from the website ZeroHedge.com, which admittedly leans conservative/libertarian, but is still less political than typical news outlets like Fox, CNN, MSNBC, etc. There are also some contributor/advertisers there, including some goldbugs, and so you need to take their commentary with a grain of salt. In my opinion, gold is great as a store of value in temporary crises, but it does not compare to stocks + dividends over the long term — it’s important just to find the right growth sector going forward (i.e. semiconductors, AI, energy, etc.). Also, bitcoin may now serve the same purpose as gold, but be better because it cannot be confiscated since it is not physical. Just my opinion.
do you follow any specific good sources which are more focused than zerohedge, which is mostly “the large picture” (I follow Premium as well).
I don’t follow any other “large picture” sources because it’s been difficult to find anyone who is consistently accurate. For short-term trades, I am currently following Ripster on X. He does mostly day trades and some “swing trades” — trades that are held for multiple days or weeks.